Live countdown to the next predicted re-entry. Ground track map with impact corridor, decay timeline, perigee altitude charts, and proximity alerts — updated in real time from US Space Force TIP data.
Real-time ground track of the next object predicted to re-enter. The shaded corridor shows the estimated area where the object could re-enter, narrowing as the prediction window tightens. See the full space debris map for all tracked objects.
Tracking —
NOW PASSING OVER
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Ground track
Projected path
Re-entry corridor
Your location
Night side
ORBITAL RADAR · LIVE RE-ENTRY TRACKING
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TLE data unavailable for this object
The object may have already re-entered or been removed from the active catalogue. Ground track will appear when a trackable object is the headline prediction.
Ground track updated — · Object altitude: — km
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Decay Timeline
Upcoming predicted re-entries from US Space Force TIP (Tracking and Impact Prediction) messages, plus recently confirmed re-entry events. Predictions narrow from days to hours as each object descends.
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Is It Over Me?
Track the decaying object's distance from your location in real time. Get proximity alerts if the predicted re-entry corridor passes near you.
Historical perigee altitude for the headline object, computed from archived TLE data. The accelerating descent into denser atmosphere is clearly visible in the final days.
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Atmospheric Drag vs Altitude
Drag force increases exponentially as altitude decreases. This visualisation shows why re-entry accelerates so dramatically in the final hours — each kilometre lower means significantly denser atmosphere.
Drag force relative to altitude · Current object altitude shown if available
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Re-entry Statistics
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This Year
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This Month
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This Week
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Predicted (7d)
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Payloads —
Debris —
Statistics compiled from confirmed re-entry data (US Space Force /decay class). Includes all tracked objects — the vast majority burn up completely. See Space Debris Statistics for broader context.
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Re-entry Heatmap
Where confirmed re-entries have occurred recently, plotted by latitude and longitude. Most debris lands in the ocean — the denser clusters follow common orbital inclinations.
Fewer
More re-entries
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Notable Historical Re-entries
The vast majority of re-entries are routine and go unnoticed. These are the exceptions — large, high-profile events that made headlines. Data auto-updates from the Orbital Radar archive.
Yes — large re-entries can be spectacular. A satellite or rocket body burning up in the atmosphere looks like a slow-moving fireball that gradually breaks apart into multiple glowing fragments, leaving bright trails across the sky. Unlike meteors (which last 1–2 seconds), a re-entry event can last 30 seconds to several minutes.
When to look: Re-entries can happen at any time of day, but are only visible at night. The best viewing occurs at dawn or dusk when the sky is dark but the object is still sunlit at altitude. Check the countdown above — if a re-entry is predicted within a few hours, check whether the ground track passes near you.
What it looks like: A slow-moving bright object that fragments into multiple pieces, each leaving a glowing trail. The fragments spread apart over time and may flash or flare as different components disintegrate. Much slower and longer-lasting than a typical meteor or shooting star.
How to tell: Re-entries move horizontally across the sky (following the object's orbital path), while meteors typically enter at steep angles. Re-entries also last much longer — 30 seconds to 3+ minutes versus a meteor's brief flash.
Re-entry occurs when an orbiting object loses enough altitude that it enters the denser layers of Earth's atmosphere and can no longer sustain orbit. At approximately 120–80 km altitude, atmospheric drag causes extreme heating — the object's surface can exceed 1,600°C — and most objects disintegrate completely.
Controlled vs Uncontrolled: Controlled re-entries use on-board propulsion to target a specific ocean area — usually the South Pacific Uninhabited Area near Point Nemo, the point on Earth furthest from any land. Uncontrolled re-entries occur when the object has no remaining propulsion capability, making the landing zone unpredictable until the final orbits.
How predictions work: The US Space Force (18th Space Defense Squadron) issues TIP (Tracking and Impact Prediction) messages for objects predicted to re-enter within the next 7 days. These predictions narrow from a ±days window to ±hours and eventually ±minutes as the object descends. Orbital Radar displays these TIP messages in real time.
What survives: Most objects burn up completely. Titanium alloys, stainless steel tanks, and carbon-carbon components have the highest survival rates. As a rough rule, 10–40% of a large object's mass may survive re-entry, though this varies widely. Learn more about space debris.
The number of re-entries is increasing as the orbital population grows — particularly with mega-constellations like Starlink routinely deorbiting satellites at end of life. Responsible deorbiting is an active area of space policy discussion.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Re-entry occurs when an orbiting object loses enough altitude that it enters the denser layers of Earth's atmosphere and can no longer maintain orbit. Most objects burn up completely during re-entry due to extreme frictional heating (temperatures exceeding 1,600°C). Larger objects like rocket bodies can sometimes survive partially and reach the ground. Learn about different orbital altitudes to understand why some objects decay faster than others.
For any individual on the ground, the risk is extraordinarily low — estimated at roughly 1 in 10 trillion. You are approximately 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning. Most debris lands in the ocean (71% of Earth's surface is water), and the inhabited land area beneath common orbital inclinations is relatively small. See our debris statistics for detailed risk analysis.
Approximately 10–20 tracked objects re-enter Earth's atmosphere each week. This number is increasing as constellations like Starlink routinely deorbit satellites at end of life. The vast majority are small debris fragments that burn up completely and go unnoticed. Check the live count in the statistics section above.
Yes — large re-entries can be visible to the naked eye as slow-moving fireballs that break apart across the sky. They look distinctly different from meteors: slower, longer-lasting (30 seconds to 3+ minutes), and often showing multiple fragments. The best viewing is at dawn or dusk. Use our pass predictor and the ground track map above to check if the next re-entry passes over your area.
The US Space Force's 18th Space Defense Squadron issues TIP (Tracking and Impact Prediction) messages for objects predicted to re-enter within the next 7 days. Predictions narrow from ±days to ±hours to ±minutes as the object descends and its orbit becomes more predictable. Orbital Radar displays these predictions in real time with live countdown timers. The accuracy depends on space weather conditions — solar activity affects atmospheric density and drag.
Skylab (1979) at approximately 77 tonnes remains the largest uncontrolled re-entry. The Soviet Salyut 7 station (1991, ~40 tonnes) and multiple Chinese Long March 5B core stages (2020–2025, ~22 tonnes each) are also notable. The ISS deorbit (~420 tonnes, planned ~2030) will be the largest controlled re-entry ever attempted. Check the notable re-entries section for the full timeline.
Controlled re-entries use on-board propulsion to target a specific ocean area — usually the South Pacific Uninhabited Area (near Point Nemo). Uncontrolled re-entries occur when the object has no propulsion, making the landing zone unpredictable until the final orbits. International guidelines including the Outer Space Treaty framework now recommend spacecraft be designed for controlled deorbiting.
Most debris that survives re-entry lands in the ocean, which covers ~71% of Earth's surface. Controlled deorbits typically target the South Pacific Oceanic Uninhabited Area — sometimes called the "spacecraft cemetery" — near Point Nemo, the point on Earth furthest from any land. See the re-entry heatmap above to visualise where recent events have occurred.
As the object descends below ~120 km altitude, atmospheric drag increases exponentially (see the drag visualisation above). Surface temperatures exceed 1,600°C, causing most materials to melt and vaporise. The object typically breaks apart between 75–85 km altitude, creating a debris cloud. Surviving fragments (usually titanium tanks, engine nozzles, and steel pressure vessels) continue to decelerate and can reach the ground at 50–200 km/h. The entire process from initial heating to ground impact takes 5–15 minutes.
Objects in low Earth orbit travel at approximately 7.8 km/s (28,000 km/h). During re-entry, atmospheric drag rapidly decelerates the object. By the time fragments reach 40 km altitude, they have typically slowed to 200–500 m/s. Surviving debris reaches the surface at terminal velocity — roughly 50–200 km/h depending on shape and mass. This is why re-entries appear as slow-moving fireballs compared to meteors, which enter at 11–72 km/s.
Only one person has ever been confirmed hit by space debris: Lottie Williams of Tulsa, Oklahoma, was struck on the shoulder by a small piece of a Delta II rocket in 1997. She was uninjured. While debris has landed in populated areas — notably Long March 5B stages over Côte d'Ivoire (2020) and Borneo (2022) — no serious injuries have ever been recorded from orbital debris. The statistical risk to any individual remains approximately 1 in 10 trillion.
Starlink satellites use krypton ion thrusters to actively lower their orbit at end of life, targeting full atmospheric burn-up within months. At ~227 kg per satellite, they are designed to demise completely — no debris survives to the surface. With thousands of satellites in the constellation, Starlink deorbits account for a significant and growing proportion of weekly re-entry events. SpaceX's approach is considered a model for responsible mega-constellation operations.
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Prediction Accuracy Scoreboard
How accurate are TIP predictions? We track the difference between predicted and actual re-entry times for every confirmed event. Data auto-updates from our verified records.
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Avg. Prediction Error
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Median Error
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Within 6 Hours
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Events Tracked
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Re-entries by Country of Origin
Which nations' hardware is re-entering most frequently? Breakdown of recent confirmed re-entries by country of origin. See satellites by country for the full orbital census.
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Re-entry Probability Footprint
Probability density map showing where the headline object is most likely to re-enter, computed from orbital inclination, argument of perigee, and the current prediction window. Updates as the window narrows. Brighter = higher probability.
Ground track passesRe-entry corridor
Low
High probability
Computed from orbital elements and prediction window
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3D Re-entry Simulation
Interactive visualisation showing how the headline object breaks up as it descends through atmospheric layers. Altitude, temperature and drag are modelled from real orbital parameters. Click play to watch the simulated descent.
ALTITUDE— km
TEMPERATURE— °C
VELOCITY— km/s
DRAG—×
Simplified physics model · Not a precision prediction
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Report a Re-entry Sighting
Did you see a re-entry event? Report your sighting to help build the most comprehensive re-entry observation database. Your report is cross-referenced with TIP predictions to confirm events.
RECENT COMMUNITY SIGHTINGS
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Re-entry Archive & Search
Searchable database of all confirmed atmospheric re-entries. Filter by year, country, object type, or mass. Each entry links to its satellite profile page for full mission details.