Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2554 ⟷ COSMOS 1412 FUEL CORE
HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2554NORAD 52202 · launched Apr 2022Military payload
4.21kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 1412 FUEL CORENORAD 13653 · launched Oct 1982Military debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 17 min before the pass.
Closest approach23 Oct 202620:26 UTC
Relative speed13.26 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude911 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed23 Oct20:09 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2554Track COSMOS 1412 FUEL COREAll approaches
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RU COSMOS 2554 and RU COSMOS 1412 FUEL CORE were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.21 km at 2026-10-23 20:26 UTC, at a relative speed of 13.26 km/s. Final forecast, made 17 min before the pass. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2554Payload
NORAD 52202
CountryCIS
Launched2022-04-07
OrbitLEO · 901 × 909 km
COSPAR2022-036A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 1412 FUEL COREDebris
NORAD 13653
CountryCIS
Launched1982-10-02
OrbitLEO · 887 × 969 km
COSPAR1982-099E
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 911 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 911 km this pass sits inside the most congested band in low Earth orbit, home to the debris left by the 2007 ASAT test and the 2009 collision. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2554 ⟷ COSMOS 1412 FUEL CORE
2026-10-23 20:264.21 km Final forecast13.26 km/s911 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
23 Oct 18:29 UTC4.21 km Forecast23 Oct 20:26 UTC23 Oct 05:42 UTCRe-check
23 Oct 10:16 UTC4.20 km Forecast23 Oct 20:26 UTC23 Oct 03:59 UTCRe-check
22 Oct 22:16 UTC4.23 km Forecast23 Oct 20:26 UTC22 Oct 17:40 UTCRe-check
22 Oct 21:42 UTC4.27 km Forecast23 Oct 20:26 UTC22 Oct 07:21 UTCRe-check
22 Oct 21:24 UTC6.18 km Forecast23 Oct 20:26 UTC22 Oct 07:21 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.68 km10-23 02:59 UTC
COSMOS 2554SCOUT A R/B
3.77 km10-24 09:06 UTC
COSMOS 2554YAOGAN-50 02 DEB
5.33 km10-23 06:18 UTC
COSMOS 2554SL-3 DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2554 ⟷ COSMOS 1412 FUEL CORE: 4.21 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/13653-52202 (accessed 2026-10-23).