Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2257 ⟷ COSMOS 2491 DEB
HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2257NORAD 22692 · launched Jun 1993Military payload
4.52kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 2491 DEBNORAD 45172 · launched Dec 2013Military debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 13 min before the pass.
Closest approach22 Oct 202607:37 UTC
Relative speed12.90 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,402 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed22 Oct07:24 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2257Track COSMOS 2491 DEBAll approaches
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RU COSMOS 2257 and RU COSMOS 2491 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.52 km at 2026-10-22 07:37 UTC, at a relative speed of 12.90 km/s. Final forecast, made 13 min before the pass. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2257Payload
NORAD 22692
CountryCIS
Launched1993-06-24
OrbitLEO · 1,406 × 1,421 km
COSPAR1993-038F
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 2491 DEBDebris
NORAD 45172
CountryCIS
Launched2013-12-25
OrbitLEO · 1,261 × 1,511 km
COSPAR2013-076AD
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1402 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1402 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2257 ⟷ COSMOS 2491 DEB
2026-10-22 07:374.52 km Final forecast12.90 km/s1,402 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
22 Oct 02:04 UTC4.52 km Forecast22 Oct 07:37 UTC21 Oct 14:06 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 09:46 UTC4.52 km Forecast22 Oct 07:37 UTC21 Oct 02:42 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 09:27 UTC4.70 km Forecast22 Oct 07:37 UTC20 Oct 15:17 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.47 km10-20 18:42 UTC
COSMOS 2257COSMOS 1251
2.56 km10-23 14:04 UTC
COSMOS 2257THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
3.67 km10-17 06:12 UTC
COSMOS 2257DELTA 1 DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2257 ⟷ COSMOS 2491 DEB: 4.52 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/22692-45172 (accessed 2026-10-23).