Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›SHIYAN 30 02 ⟷ COSMOS 2251 DEB
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ChinaSHIYAN 30 02NORAD 65852 · launched Sep 2025Military payload
4.53kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 2251 DEBNORAD 38208 · launched Jun 1993Military debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 8 min before the pass.
Closest approach21 Oct 202616:38 UTC
Relative speed7.10 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude593 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed21 Oct16:30 UTC · final forecast
Track SHIYAN 30 02Track COSMOS 2251 DEBAll approaches
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CN SHIYAN 30 02 and RU COSMOS 2251 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.53 km at 2026-10-21 16:38 UTC, at a relative speed of 7.10 km/s. Final forecast, made 8 min before the pass. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations, the kind of event closely watched for space-security implications. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
SHIYAN 30 02Payload
NORAD 65852
CountryPRC
Launched2025-09-29
OrbitLEO · 590 × 593 km
COSPAR2025-222B
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 2251 DEBDebris
NORAD 38208
CountryCIS
Launched1993-06-16
OrbitLEO · 576 × 587 km
COSPAR1993-036BSY
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 593 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 593 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

2 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · SHIYAN 30 02 ⟷ COSMOS 2251 DEB
2026-10-21 16:384.53 km Final forecast7.10 km/s593 kmShown above
2026-10-21 15:509.71 km Not re-confirmed7.12 km/s580 kmView →

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
21 Oct 13:30 UTC4.53 km Forecast21 Oct 16:38 UTC21 Oct 05:42 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 09:46 UTC4.57 km Forecast21 Oct 16:38 UTC21 Oct 03:01 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 03:52 UTC4.71 km Forecast21 Oct 16:38 UTC20 Oct 23:16 UTCRe-check
20 Oct 21:52 UTC7.67 km Forecast21 Oct 16:38 UTC20 Oct 05:36 UTCRe-check
20 Oct 21:32 UTC9.48 km Forecast21 Oct 16:38 UTC20 Oct 05:36 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.52 km10-21 15:52 UTC
SHIYAN 30 02TRACERS 2
2.90 km10-21 22:17 UTC
SHIYAN 30 02SL-14 R/B
4.47 km10-21 21:46 UTC
SHIYAN 30 02POEM 2

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “SHIYAN 30 02 ⟷ COSMOS 2251 DEB: 4.53 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/38208-65852 (accessed 2026-10-21).
✓ Permanent record. This encounter met the notability thresholds and keeps an archived page after the pass.