RUCOSMOS 2491 and USDELTA 1 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 1.57 km at 2026-10-22 05:56 UTC, at a relative speed of 14.20 km/s. Final forecast, made 12 min before the pass. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations, the kind of event closely watched for space-security implications. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.
Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.
At 1480 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →
History Between This Pair
3 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2491 ⟷ DELTA 1 DEB
2026-10-22 05:561.57 km Final forecast14.20 km/s1,480 kmShown above
2026-10-22 04:586.85 km Final forecast14.16 km/s1,504 kmView →
2026-10-22 04:005.72 km Final forecast14.20 km/s1,480 kmView →
Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.
Forecast Record
Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
22 Oct 02:04 UTC1.57 km Forecast22 Oct 05:56 UTC21 Oct 13:50 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 13:30 UTC1.59 km Forecast22 Oct 05:56 UTC21 Oct 06:07 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 09:46 UTC1.59 km Forecast22 Oct 05:56 UTC21 Oct 04:11 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 06:52 UTC1.59 km Forecast22 Oct 05:56 UTC20 Oct 22:23 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 06:32 UTC8.29 km Forecast22 Oct 05:56 UTC20 Oct 22:23 UTCScreen
Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? →How conjunction assessment works →
Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2491 ⟷ DELTA 1 DEB: 1.57 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/39497-7034 (accessed 2026-10-22).
✓ Permanent record. This encounter met the notability thresholds and keeps an archived page after the pass.
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