CN SHIYAN 21 (SY-21) and US STARLINK-30841 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 6.84 km at 2026-10-22 00:04 UTC, drifting past at about 950 m/s (3,421 km/h) as seen from STARLINK-30841. Withdrawn: newer orbit data from 21 Oct 11:37 UTC no longer shows this pass. Within 40 minutes of the predicted time the two stay at least 35.2 km apart. The figure above is the forecast as it was published; the newer check is shown beside it, and nothing is overwritten. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations, the kind of event closely watched for space-security implications. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.
The Two Objects
Where This Happens
At 484 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →
History Between This Pair
Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.
Forecast Record
These Objects Elsewhere
How These Numbers Are Computed
Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →