Apparent magnitude is astronomy's brightness scale — lower numbers brighter, each step of 1 a factor of ~2.5. The ISS can blaze at −4 like Venus; typical satellites drift by at +3 to +6 near naked-eye limits. Predictions quote it so you know what to expect.
Understanding Apparent Magnitude
Predicting a satellite's brightness
The model mirrors planetary photometry: start from the object's intrinsic size and reflectivity (often summarised as magnitude at 1,000 km range and standard phase), scale by actual range (inverse square), apply the phase function (fraction of sunlit side facing you), and add atmospheric extinction rising toward the horizon. Tumbling and specular geometry add the drama — brief glints when some flat surface aligns Sun-satellite-observer within fractions of a degree.
Magnitude diplomacy
Constellation brightness turned an observer's scale into policy vocabulary: astronomy bodies set recommended limits (fainter than magnitude +7 at operational altitude), operators answer with visors, dark coatings and attitude tricks, and impact studies count how many streaks per exposure a survey inherits per thousand satellites at a given magnitude. The magnitude scale — invented for cataloguing stars — now referees the negotiation between megaconstellations and the night.