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MediumProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2015NORAD 19909 · launched Mar 1989Military payload
9.73kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 1718NORAD 16451 · launched Jan 1986Military payload
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 11 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 9.71 km at 29 Oct 08:06 UTC.
Closest approach29 Oct 202608:06 UTC
Relative speed4.55 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,502 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed29 Oct07:55 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2015Track COSMOS 1718All approaches
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RU COSMOS 2015 and RU COSMOS 1718 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 9.73 km at 2026-10-29 08:06 UTC, at a relative speed of 4.55 km/s. Final forecast, made 11 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 9.71 km at 29 Oct 08:06 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2015Payload
NORAD 19909
CountryCIS
Launched1989-03-24
OrbitLEO · 1,470 × 1,509 km
COSPAR1989-025H
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 1718Payload
NORAD 16451
CountryCIS
Launched1986-01-09
OrbitLEO · 1,475 × 1,495 km
COSPAR1986-002C
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1502 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1502 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

3 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2015 ⟷ COSMOS 1718
2026-10-29 09:044.33 km Final forecast4.56 km/s1,472 kmView →
2026-10-29 08:069.73 km Final forecast4.55 km/s1,502 kmShown above
2026-07-24 02:014.56 km Final forecast4.51 km/s1,480 kmView →

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
2 Nov 07:07 UTC9.71 km Best estimate29 Oct 08:06 UTC29 Oct 06:41 UTCBest estimate
29 Oct 00:15 UTC9.73 km Forecast29 Oct 08:06 UTC28 Oct 12:12 UTCRe-check
28 Oct 11:39 UTC9.72 km Forecast29 Oct 08:06 UTC27 Oct 23:51 UTCRe-check
28 Oct 09:48 UTC9.70 km Forecast29 Oct 08:06 UTC27 Oct 06:29 UTCRe-check
28 Oct 09:28 UTC9.80 km Forecast29 Oct 08:06 UTC27 Oct 06:29 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
878 m10-27 17:40 UTC
COSMOS 2015DELTA 1 DEB
1.79 km11-01 07:20 UTC
COSMOS 2015COSMOS 2392 DEB
3.02 km11-03 06:35 UTC
COSMOS 2192COSMOS 1718

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2015 ⟷ COSMOS 1718: 9.73 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/16451-19909 (accessed 2026-11-02).