Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2037 ⟷ THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
HighCross-border
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 8 min before the pass.
Closest approach28 Oct 202612:22 UTC
Relative speed10.43 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,502 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed28 Oct12:15 UTC · final forecast

RU COSMOS 2037 and US THORAD DELTA 1 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 5.70 km at 2026-10-28 12:22 UTC, at a relative speed of 10.43 km/s. Final forecast, made 8 min before the pass. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations, the kind of event closely watched for space-security implications. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
NORAD 20196
CountryCIS
Launched1989-08-28
COSPAR1989-068A
Maneuver capableUnknown
NORAD 8563
CountryUS
Launched1974-11-15
COSPAR1974-089DA
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1502 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1502 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2037 ⟷ THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
2026-10-28 12:225.70 km Final forecast10.43 km/s1,502 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
28 Oct 11:39 UTC5.70 km Forecast28 Oct 12:22 UTC27 Oct 23:11 UTCRe-check
27 Oct 13:10 UTC5.70 km Forecast28 Oct 12:22 UTC27 Oct 05:18 UTCRe-check
27 Oct 13:00 UTC7.36 km Forecast28 Oct 12:22 UTC27 Oct 05:18 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.47 km10-28 13:14 UTC
COSMOS 2037COSMOS 2496
3.28 km10-28 05:46 UTC
COSMOS 2037DELTA 1 DEB
3.70 km10-27 16:31 UTC
COSMOS 2271THORAD DELTA 1 DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2037 ⟷ THORAD DELTA 1 DEB: 5.70 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/20196-8563 (accessed 2026-10-30).