Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2221 ⟷ AE1A
HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2221NORAD 22236 · launched Nov 1992Military payload
2.63kmPredicted miss distance
JapanAE1ANORAD 68487 · launched Mar 2026Payload
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 19 min before the pass.
Closest approach31 Oct 202610:35 UTC
Relative speed14.66 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude595 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed31 Oct10:16 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2221Track AE1AAll approaches
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RU COSMOS 2221 and JP AE1A were predicted to reach a closest approach of 2.63 km at 2026-10-31 10:35 UTC, at a relative speed of 14.66 km/s. Final forecast, made 19 min before the pass. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2221Payload
NORAD 22236
CountryCIS
Launched1992-11-24
OrbitLEO · 566 × 587 km
COSPAR1992-080A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
AE1APayload
NORAD 68487
CountryJPN
Launched2026-03-30
OrbitLEO · 585 × 589 km
COSPAR2026-067BZ
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 595 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 595 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2221 ⟷ AE1A
2026-10-31 10:352.63 km Final forecast14.66 km/s595 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
31 Oct 09:16 UTC2.63 km Forecast31 Oct 10:35 UTC31 Oct 02:56 UTCRe-check
30 Oct 21:09 UTC2.64 km Forecast31 Oct 10:35 UTC30 Oct 12:28 UTCRe-check
30 Oct 21:01 UTC5.48 km Forecast31 Oct 10:35 UTC29 Oct 18:52 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.05 km10-31 19:26 UTC
ICEYE-X81AE1A
2.80 km11-02 15:39 UTC
COSMOS 2221LANDSAT 5
3.20 km11-04 08:22 UTC
COSMOS 2221ATLAS 28E DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →