Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2249 ⟷ COSMOS 2499 DEB
HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2249NORAD 22650 · launched May 1993Military payload
1.60kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 2499 DEBNORAD 49931 · launched May 2014Military debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 13 min before the pass.
Closest approach2 Nov 202616:29 UTC
Relative speed8.65 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,403 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed2 Nov16:15 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2249Track COSMOS 2499 DEBAll approaches
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RU COSMOS 2249 and RU COSMOS 2499 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 1.60 km at 2026-11-02 16:29 UTC, at a relative speed of 8.65 km/s. Final forecast, made 13 min before the pass. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2249Payload
NORAD 22650
CountryCIS
Launched1993-05-11
OrbitLEO · 1,404 × 1,416 km
COSPAR1993-030E
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 2499 DEBDebris
NORAD 49931
CountryCIS
Launched2014-05-23
OrbitLEO · 1,071 × 1,504 km
COSPAR2014-028N
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1403 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1403 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2249 ⟷ COSMOS 2499 DEB
2026-11-02 16:291.60 km Final forecast8.65 km/s1,403 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
2 Nov 09:14 UTC1.60 km Forecast2 Nov 16:29 UTC2 Nov 02:47 UTCRe-check
2 Nov 03:27 UTC2.43 km Forecast2 Nov 16:29 UTC1 Nov 08:22 UTCRe-check
1 Nov 21:09 UTC2.42 km Forecast2 Nov 16:29 UTC1 Nov 04:49 UTCRe-check
1 Nov 20:59 UTC5.52 km Forecast2 Nov 16:29 UTC1 Nov 04:49 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
3.47 km10-28 18:30 UTC
COSMOS 2249DELTA 1 DEB
3.74 km11-03 10:07 UTC
COSMOS 2249OPS 6630 DEB
3.88 km10-28 03:25 UTC
COSMOS 2249COSMOS 2253

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2249 ⟷ COSMOS 2499 DEB: 1.60 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/22650-49931 (accessed 2026-11-03).