Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›YAOGAN 29 ⟷ CZ-4 DEB
HighProximity
ChinaYAOGAN 29NORAD 41038 · launched Nov 2015Military payload
2.13kmPredicted miss distance
ChinaCZ-4 DEBNORAD 35320 · launched Oct 1999Debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 18 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 2.08 km at 22 Oct 17:40 UTC.
Closest approach22 Oct 202617:40 UTC
Drift speed128 m/s461 km/h, seen from CZ-4 DEB
Altitude626 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed22 Oct17:22 UTC · final forecast
Track YAOGAN 29Track CZ-4 DEBAll approaches
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CN YAOGAN 29 and CN CZ-4 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 2.13 km at 2026-10-22 17:40 UTC, drifting past at about 128 m/s (461 km/h) as seen from CZ-4 DEB. Final forecast, made 18 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 2.08 km at 22 Oct 17:40 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
YAOGAN 29Payload
NORAD 41038
CountryPRC
Launched2015-11-26
OrbitLEO · 618 × 620 km
COSPAR2015-069A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
CZ-4 DEBDebris
NORAD 35320
CountryPRC
Launched1999-10-14
OrbitLEO · 616 × 619 km
COSPAR1999-057RY
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 626 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 626 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

2 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · YAOGAN 29 ⟷ CZ-4 DEB
2026-10-22 18:283.51 km Final forecast0.13 km/s611 kmView →
2026-10-22 17:402.13 km Final forecast0.13 km/s626 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
24 Oct 17:49 UTC2.08 km Best estimate22 Oct 17:40 UTC22 Oct 18:09 UTCBest estimate
22 Oct 11:50 UTC2.13 km Forecast22 Oct 17:40 UTC22 Oct 06:49 UTCRe-check
22 Oct 08:04 UTC1.88 km Forecast22 Oct 17:40 UTC22 Oct 00:20 UTCRe-check
22 Oct 02:04 UTC3.17 km Forecast22 Oct 17:40 UTC21 Oct 14:37 UTCRe-check
21 Oct 17:50 UTC2.81 km Forecast22 Oct 17:40 UTC21 Oct 08:08 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.50 km10-23 04:22 UTC
YAOGAN 29COSMOS 2251 DEB
3.02 km10-23 02:12 UTC
YAOGAN 29ORBCOMM FM 29
3.03 km10-26 18:42 UTC
YAOGAN 29FENGYUN 1C DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “YAOGAN 29 ⟷ CZ-4 DEB: 2.13 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/35320-41038 (accessed 2026-10-27).