Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2538 ⟷ STARLINK-30413
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RussiaCOSMOS 2538NORAD 44424 · launched Jul 2019Military payload
3.00kmPredicted miss distance
United StatesSTARLINK-30413NORAD 57814 · launched Sep 2023Payload
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 8 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 3.16 km at 24 Oct 05:16 UTC.
Closest approach24 Oct 202605:16 UTC
Relative speed7.03 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude483 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed24 Oct05:09 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2538Track STARLINK-30413All approaches
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RU COSMOS 2538 and US STARLINK-30413 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 3.00 km at 2026-10-24 05:16 UTC, at a relative speed of 7.03 km/s. Final forecast, made 8 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 3.16 km at 24 Oct 05:16 UTC. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations, the kind of event closely watched for space-security implications. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2538Payload
NORAD 44424
CountryCIS
Launched2019-07-10
OrbitLEO · 473 × 527 km
COSPAR2019-039D
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
STARLINK-30413Payload
NORAD 57814
CountryUS
Launched2023-09-09
OrbitLEO · 479 × 487 km
COSPAR2023-138G
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 483 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 483 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2538 ⟷ STARLINK-30413
2026-10-24 05:163.00 km Final forecast7.03 km/s483 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
26 Oct 21:04 UTC3.16 km Best estimate24 Oct 05:16 UTC24 Oct 06:52 UTCBest estimate
24 Oct 00:29 UTC3.00 km Forecast24 Oct 05:16 UTC23 Oct 20:56 UTCRe-check
23 Oct 18:29 UTC5.26 km Forecast24 Oct 05:16 UTC23 Oct 14:09 UTCRe-check
23 Oct 10:16 UTC4.45 km Forecast24 Oct 05:16 UTC23 Oct 04:03 UTCRe-check
23 Oct 09:56 UTC4.43 km Forecast24 Oct 05:16 UTC22 Oct 17:00 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.54 km10-20 19:18 UTC
COSMOS 2538STARLINK-36125
1.95 km10-21 00:06 UTC
COSMOS 2538AEROCUBE 18B
3.54 km10-26 20:18 UTC
COSMOS 2538STARLINK-31658

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →

Cite this encounter: Orbital Radar — “COSMOS 2538 ⟷ STARLINK-30413: 3.00 km predicted close approach”, https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/44424-57814 (accessed 2026-10-27).
✓ Permanent record. This encounter met the notability thresholds and keeps an archived page after the pass.