RU COSMOS 2616 and JP HMU-SAT2 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 5.44 km at 2026-10-20 22:13 UTC, at a relative speed of 14.65 km/s. Final forecast, made minutes before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 4.82 km at 20 Oct 22:13 UTC. One of the two changed orbit around the time of the pass (a maneuver or strong drag), so this estimate is less certain. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.
The Two Objects
Where This Happens
At 305 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →
History Between This Pair
Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.
Forecast Record
These Objects Elsewhere
How These Numbers Are Computed
Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →