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Home Academy Conjunctions & Collision Avoidance Miss distance + uncertainty
LESSON 02 OF 6

Miss distance + uncertainty

Beginner ~9 min Slide deck Free

The distance two objects pass each other — and the size of the error ellipsoid around each — together define real risk.

The distance two objects pass each other — and the size of the error ellipsoid around each — together define real risk.

What this lesson covers

Probability of Collision (Pc)

Pc is the integral of the combined probability density across the collision cross-section — expressed as a number like 1-in-1,000 or 0.1%.

Why Uncertainty Dominates

Most conjunction alerts are driven by poor tracking data, not genuinely close approaches.

Key facts

💡Pc is a model, not a fact. Tracking data quality dominates everything.
Miss distance without uncertainty is noise. Pc without data quality is a guess.

Always ask: how old is the tracking data, and how large is the error ellipsoid?

All lessons in Conjunctions & Collision Avoidance
01What a conjunction is~9 min02Miss distance + uncertainty~9 min03Screening windows~10 min04Avoidance maneuvers~9 min05Headlines vs reality~9 min06Interpret risk calmly~9 min
← What a conjunction isAll 6 LessonsScreening windows →
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