Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›YAOGAN-50 02 DEB ⟷ THORAD AGENA D DEB
HighCross-border
ChinaYAOGAN-50 02 DEBNORAD 100575 · launched Mar 2026Military debris
4.47kmPredicted miss distance
United StatesTHORAD AGENA D DEBNORAD 42533 · launched Apr 1970Debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 18 min before the pass.
Closest approach11 Nov 202617:15 UTC
Relative speed9.41 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude937 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed11 Nov16:57 UTC · final forecast
Track YAOGAN-50 02 DEBTrack THORAD AGENA D DEBAll approaches
Share

CN YAOGAN-50 02 DEB and US THORAD AGENA D DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.47 km at 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC, at a relative speed of 9.41 km/s. Final forecast, made 18 min before the pass. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersNeither object can maneuver: the miss distance will evolve only with natural orbital perturbations, so screening continues until the pass is over.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
YAOGAN-50 02 DEBDebris
NORAD 100575
CountryPRC
Launched2026-03-15
OrbitLEO · 870 × 985 km
COSPAR2026-051P
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →
THORAD AGENA D DEBDebris
NORAD 42533
CountryUS
Launched1970-04-08
OrbitLEO · 833 × 1,034 km
COSPAR1970-025SP
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 937 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 937 km this pass sits inside the most congested band in low Earth orbit, home to the debris left by the 2007 ASAT test and the 2009 collision. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · YAOGAN-50 02 DEB ⟷ THORAD AGENA D DEB
2026-11-11 17:154.47 km Final forecast9.41 km/s937 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
11 Nov 10:26 UTC4.47 km Forecast11 Nov 17:15 UTC11 Nov 00:38 UTCRe-check
10 Nov 21:42 UTC4.74 km Forecast11 Nov 17:15 UTC9 Nov 20:50 UTCRe-check
10 Nov 21:23 UTC5.94 km Forecast11 Nov 17:15 UTC9 Nov 20:50 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.56 km11-08 16:22 UTC
YAOGAN-50 02 DEBSL-8 R/B
5.15 km11-12 03:42 UTC
COSMOS 2528THORAD AGENA D DEB
6.50 km11-09 23:29 UTC
YAOGAN-50 02 DEBCZ-6A DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →