WithdrawnNewer orbit data from 6 Nov 08:45 UTC no longer shows this pass. Within 40 minutes of the predicted time the two stayed at least 27.0 km apart. The most recent pass the screening confirmed up to its time: 7.90 km on 6 Nov 22:54 UTC (best estimate after it: at least 986 m).
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: within 40 minutes of the predicted time the two stayed at least 28.7 km apart.
USPELICAN-12 and NETHICEYE-X109 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 1.78 km at 2026-11-06 14:43 UTC, drifting past at about 3.3 m/s (12 km/h) as seen from ICEYE-X109. Withdrawn: newer orbit data from 6 Nov 08:45 UTC no longer shows this pass. Within 40 minutes of the predicted time the two stayed at least 27.0 km apart. The figure above is the forecast as it was published; the newer check is shown beside it, and nothing is overwritten. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: within 40 minutes of the predicted time the two stayed at least 28.7 km apart. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.
Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.
At 591 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →
History Between This Pair
6 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · PELICAN-12 ⟷ ICEYE-X109
2026-11-06 22:547.90 km Final forecast · after: ≥986 m0.01 km/s591 kmView →
2026-11-06 20:25638 m Final forecast · after: ≥2.51 km0.00 km/s586 kmView →
Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.
Forecast Record
Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
10 Nov 12:13 UTC28.71 km Best estimate6 Nov 15:24 UTC6 Nov 14:47 UTCBest estimate
5 Nov 20:55 UTC11.61 km Withdrawn6 Nov 15:24 UTC5 Nov 16:45 UTCRe-check
5 Nov 14:27 UTC1.78 km Forecast6 Nov 14:43 UTC5 Nov 04:45 UTCRe-check
5 Nov 14:07 UTC4.69 km Forecast6 Nov 14:07 UTC5 Nov 04:45 UTCScreen
5 Nov 13:47 UTC5.26 km Forecast6 Nov 13:47 UTC5 Nov 04:45 UTCScreen
5 Nov 13:27 UTC6.98 km Forecast6 Nov 13:27 UTC5 Nov 04:45 UTCScreen
Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? →How conjunction assessment works →
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