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HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2481NORAD 38733 · launched Jul 2012Military payload
1.45kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 1054NORAD 11131 · launched Dec 1978Military payload
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 10 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 1.47 km at 8 Nov 05:31 UTC.
Closest approach8 Nov 202605:31 UTC
Relative speed13.83 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,480 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed8 Nov05:21 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2481Track COSMOS 1054All approaches
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RU COSMOS 2481 and RU COSMOS 1054 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 1.45 km at 2026-11-08 05:31 UTC, at a relative speed of 13.83 km/s. Final forecast, made 10 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 1.47 km at 8 Nov 05:31 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2481Payload
NORAD 38733
CountryCIS
Launched2012-07-28
OrbitLEO · 1,481 × 1,512 km
COSPAR2012-041A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 1054Payload
NORAD 11131
CountryCIS
Launched1978-12-05
OrbitLEO · 1,446 × 1,489 km
COSPAR1978-109D
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1480 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1480 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2481 ⟷ COSMOS 1054
2026-11-08 05:311.45 km Final forecast · after: 1.47 km13.83 km/s1,480 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
12 Nov 19:53 UTC1.47 km Best estimate8 Nov 05:31 UTC8 Nov 06:39 UTCBest estimate
7 Nov 12:51 UTC1.45 km Forecast8 Nov 05:31 UTC7 Nov 06:58 UTCRe-check
7 Nov 11:46 UTC1.41 km Forecast8 Nov 05:31 UTC6 Nov 22:58 UTCRe-check
7 Nov 11:27 UTC4.89 km Forecast8 Nov 05:31 UTC6 Nov 22:58 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.78 km11-09 00:27 UTC
COSMOS 2481SL-14 DEB
3.34 km11-14 03:09 UTC
COSMOS 2481DELTA 1 DEB
4.32 km11-06 19:32 UTC
COSMOS 2481COSMOS 1510

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →