Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2015 ⟷ COSMOS 1823 DEB
CriticalProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2015NORAD 19909 · launched Mar 1989Military payload
577mPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 1823 DEBNORAD 18910 · launched Feb 1987Military debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made minutes before the pass.
Closest approach4 Nov 202609:09 UTC
Relative speed13.38 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,484 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed4 Nov09:04 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2015Track COSMOS 1823 DEBAll approaches
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RU COSMOS 2015 and RU COSMOS 1823 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 577 m at 2026-11-04 09:09 UTC, at a relative speed of 13.38 km/s. Final forecast, made minutes before the pass. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2015Payload
NORAD 19909
CountryCIS
Launched1989-03-24
OrbitLEO · 1,469 × 1,509 km
COSPAR1989-025H
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 1823 DEBDebris
NORAD 18910
CountryCIS
Launched1987-02-20
OrbitLEO · 1,456 × 1,483 km
COSPAR1987-020AU
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1484 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1484 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2015 ⟷ COSMOS 1823 DEB
2026-11-04 09:09577 m Final forecast13.38 km/s1,484 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
3 Nov 20:29 UTC577 m Forecast4 Nov 09:09 UTC3 Nov 12:31 UTCRe-check
3 Nov 20:11 UTC590 m Forecast4 Nov 09:09 UTC2 Nov 22:12 UTCRe-check
3 Nov 20:05 UTC755 m Forecast4 Nov 09:09 UTC2 Nov 22:12 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.69 km11-04 10:46 UTC
COSMOS 2015COSMOS 1794
1.79 km11-01 07:20 UTC
COSMOS 2015COSMOS 2392 DEB
3.35 km11-01 19:04 UTC
COSMOS 2015DELTA 1 DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →