Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2038 ⟷ THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
HighCross-border
RussiaCOSMOS 2038NORAD 20232 · launched Sep 1989Military payload
5.50kmPredicted miss distance
United StatesTHORAD DELTA 1 DEBNORAD 8139 · launched Nov 1974Debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 18 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 5.53 km at 7 Nov 17:49 UTC.
Closest approach7 Nov 202617:49 UTC
Relative speed14.32 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,398 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed7 Nov17:31 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2038Track THORAD DELTA 1 DEBAll approaches
Share

RU COSMOS 2038 and US THORAD DELTA 1 DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 5.50 km at 2026-11-07 17:49 UTC, at a relative speed of 14.32 km/s. Final forecast, made 18 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 5.53 km at 7 Nov 17:49 UTC. This is a cross-border encounter between objects of different nations. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2038Payload
NORAD 20232
CountryCIS
Launched1989-09-14
OrbitLEO · 1,391 × 1,410 km
COSPAR1989-074A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
THORAD DELTA 1 DEBDebris
NORAD 8139
CountryUS
Launched1974-11-15
OrbitLEO · 1,375 × 1,454 km
COSPAR1974-089H
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1398 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1398 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2038 ⟷ THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
2026-11-07 17:495.50 km Final forecast · after: 5.53 km14.32 km/s1,398 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
12 Nov 01:38 UTC5.53 km Best estimate7 Nov 17:49 UTC7 Nov 22:21 UTCBest estimate
7 Nov 12:51 UTC5.50 km Forecast7 Nov 17:49 UTC7 Nov 03:44 UTCRe-check
7 Nov 09:18 UTC5.49 km Forecast7 Nov 17:49 UTC6 Nov 22:03 UTCRe-check
6 Nov 22:14 UTC5.47 km Forecast7 Nov 17:49 UTC6 Nov 15:16 UTCRe-check
6 Nov 20:31 UTC5.45 km Forecast7 Nov 17:49 UTC5 Nov 21:21 UTCRe-check
6 Nov 20:11 UTC6.28 km Forecast7 Nov 17:49 UTC5 Nov 21:21 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.49 km11-11 02:48 UTC
COSMOS 2038COSMOS 1828
4.33 km11-13 11:41 UTC
COSMOS 2038THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
5.75 km11-10 22:55 UTC
COSMOS 2038COSMOS 1620

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →