Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›YAOGAN 29 ⟷ FENGYUN 1C DEB
HighProximity
ChinaYAOGAN 29NORAD 41038 · launched Nov 2015Military payload
1.04kmPredicted miss distance
ChinaFENGYUN 1C DEBNORAD 31492 · launched May 1999Debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made 12 min before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 277 m at 31 Oct 20:49 UTC.
Closest approach31 Oct 202620:49 UTC
Relative speed14.92 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude619 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed31 Oct20:36 UTC · final forecast
Track YAOGAN 29Track FENGYUN 1C DEBAll approaches
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CN YAOGAN 29 and CN FENGYUN 1C DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 1.04 km at 2026-10-31 20:49 UTC, at a relative speed of 14.92 km/s. Final forecast, made 12 min before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 277 m at 31 Oct 20:49 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
YAOGAN 29Payload
NORAD 41038
CountryPRC
Launched2015-11-26
OrbitLEO · 619 × 620 km
COSPAR2015-069A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
FENGYUN 1C DEBDebris
NORAD 31492
CountryPRC
Launched1999-05-10
OrbitLEO · 582 × 651 km
COSPAR1999-025BWF
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 619 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 619 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

3 predicted passes under 10 km
Pair history · YAOGAN 29 ⟷ FENGYUN 1C DEB
2026-10-31 22:261.55 km Final forecast14.92 km/s619 kmView →
2026-10-31 20:491.04 km Final forecast14.92 km/s619 kmShown above
2026-10-31 17:346.08 km Final forecast14.92 km/s619 kmView →

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
4 Nov 08:04 UTC277 m Best estimate31 Oct 20:49 UTC2 Nov 12:33 UTCBest estimate
31 Oct 09:16 UTC1.04 km Forecast31 Oct 20:49 UTC31 Oct 04:32 UTCRe-check
30 Oct 21:23 UTC1.12 km Forecast31 Oct 20:49 UTC30 Oct 13:58 UTCRe-check
30 Oct 21:09 UTC3.69 km Forecast31 Oct 20:49 UTC30 Oct 13:58 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
1.65 km11-01 23:50 UTC
YAOGAN 29CZ-6A DEB
1.87 km11-04 15:04 UTC
YAOGAN 29SL-14 R/B
2.29 km11-06 11:30 UTC
YAOGAN 29BEIJING 3B

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →