Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›COSMOS 2438 ⟷ COSMOS 825
HighProximity
RussiaCOSMOS 2438NORAD 32955 · launched May 2008Military payload
4.71kmPredicted miss distance
RussiaCOSMOS 825NORAD 8889 · launched Jun 1976Military payload
Final forecastFinal forecast, made minutes before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 4.79 km at 6 Nov 17:12 UTC.
Closest approach6 Nov 202617:12 UTC
Relative speed8.36 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude1,480 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed6 Nov17:10 UTC · final forecast
Track COSMOS 2438Track COSMOS 825All approaches
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RU COSMOS 2438 and RU COSMOS 825 were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.71 km at 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC, at a relative speed of 8.36 km/s. Final forecast, made minutes before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 4.79 km at 6 Nov 17:12 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersBoth objects are catalogued as payloads. Screening continues as new element sets arrive; operators act on their own conjunction data.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
COSMOS 2438Payload
NORAD 32955
CountryCIS
Launched2008-05-23
OrbitLEO · 1,476 × 1,509 km
COSPAR2008-025C
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
COSMOS 825Payload
NORAD 8889
CountryCIS
Launched1976-06-15
OrbitLEO · 1,394 × 1,487 km
COSPAR1976-054A
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 1480 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 1480 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · COSMOS 2438 ⟷ COSMOS 825
2026-11-06 17:124.71 km Final forecast · after: 4.79 km8.36 km/s1,480 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
10 Nov 15:46 UTC4.79 km Best estimate6 Nov 17:12 UTC6 Nov 22:31 UTCBest estimate
6 Nov 08:55 UTC4.71 km Forecast6 Nov 17:12 UTC5 Nov 21:30 UTCRe-check
5 Nov 21:15 UTC4.39 km Forecast6 Nov 17:12 UTC4 Nov 22:43 UTCRe-check
5 Nov 20:55 UTC7.02 km Forecast6 Nov 17:12 UTC4 Nov 22:43 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.37 km11-11 04:17 UTC
COSMOS 2088COSMOS 825
2.87 km11-09 12:52 UTC
COSMOS 2438SL-14 DEB
3.94 km11-10 20:55 UTC
COSMOS 2438SL-8 DEB

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →