Home›Maneuver Tracker›Close Approaches›YAOGAN-30 J ⟷ CZ-2C DEB
HighProximity
ChinaYAOGAN-30 JNORAD 43083 · launched Dec 2017Military payload
4.69kmPredicted miss distance
ChinaCZ-2C DEBNORAD 40263 · launched Sep 2014Debris
Final forecastFinal forecast, made minutes before the pass.
After the passBest estimate, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 4.68 km at 31 Oct 22:40 UTC.
Closest approach31 Oct 202622:40 UTC
Relative speed8.41 km/sat the closest approach
Altitude553 kmlow Earth orbit
Last confirmed31 Oct22:36 UTC · final forecast
Track YAOGAN-30 JTrack CZ-2C DEBAll approaches
Share

CN YAOGAN-30 J and CN CZ-2C DEB were predicted to reach a closest approach of 4.69 km at 2026-10-31 22:40 UTC, at a relative speed of 8.41 km/s. Final forecast, made minutes before the pass. Best estimate after the pass, from the orbit data published nearest its time: 4.68 km at 31 Oct 22:40 UTC. Miss distance and time of closest approach are computed by propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects, and each pass is re-checked every 20 minutes as new element sets are published. See the Satellite Maneuver Tracker for the live picture and space situational awareness for context.

Why it mattersOne side of this pass cannot maneuver, so any avoidance decision rests with the other operator. Screening continues as new element sets arrive.

The Two Objects

Dossiers from the satellite directory
YAOGAN-30 JPayload
NORAD 43083
CountryPRC
Launched2017-12-25
OrbitLEO · 553 × 561 km
COSPAR2017-085C
Maneuver capableUnknown
Profile →Globe →
CZ-2C DEBDebris
NORAD 40263
CountryPRC
Launched2014-09-28
OrbitLEO · 546 × 617 km
COSPAR2014-059C
Maneuver capableNo
Uncontrolled debris fragment tracked by the public catalogue. About space debris →
Profile →Globe →

Where This Happens

Altitude context
DEBRIS BELT 700–1000 KM2006001,0001,5002,000 kmTHIS PASS · 553 KMISS 420Starlink 550

At 553 km this pass sits in low Earth orbit. Objects here stay up for decades: there is too little atmospheric drag to clean the band naturally. Why crowded bands matter →

History Between This Pair

1 predicted pass under 10 km
Pair history · YAOGAN-30 J ⟷ CZ-2C DEB
2026-10-31 22:404.69 km Final forecast8.41 km/s553 kmShown above

Repeat encounters are common for objects in near-intersecting orbital planes. Each pass is re-screened as fresh element sets arrive; "Final forecast" means the screening still predicted it within 45 minutes of its time, "Not re-confirmed" means later screening stopped finding it.

Forecast Record

Every figure published for the pass shown above, newest first. Nothing is overwritten: a withdrawn forecast keeps its figure, with the newer check beside it, and the best estimate after the pass is a row of its own.
Computed · figure · predicted time · orbit data · by
4 Nov 09:04 UTC4.68 km Best estimate31 Oct 22:40 UTC1 Nov 04:07 UTCBest estimate
31 Oct 21:16 UTC4.69 km Forecast31 Oct 22:40 UTC31 Oct 13:46 UTCRe-check
31 Oct 09:36 UTC5.04 km Forecast31 Oct 22:40 UTC30 Oct 23:26 UTCRe-check
31 Oct 09:16 UTC6.77 km Forecast31 Oct 22:40 UTC30 Oct 23:26 UTCScreen

These Objects Elsewhere

Other screened approaches · 7 days
2.68 km11-04 17:43 UTC
YAOGAN-30 JCOSMOS 2611
3.86 km10-29 20:37 UTC
YAOGAN-30 JCANX-2
5.00 km11-05 15:21 UTC
YAOGAN-30 JOKEAN 3

How These Numbers Are Computed

Miss distance and TCA come from propagating the latest published orbital elements for both objects and searching for the minimum separation over the screening window. Element sets carry kilometre-scale uncertainty, so figures here describe a close pass, not a collision prediction; a change in either object's published elements re-computes the pass automatically. What is a conjunction? → How conjunction assessment works →